Divining the News (DTN)

Not Mainstream News

Olmert warns of unpredictable neighbors, his advisers must be warning of something

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Olmert is saying Israel’s neighbors are unpredictable.

Speaking four days after the end of Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip, Olmert said “I hope the quiet will continue for a long time… [but] we live in a severely uncertain region, we have neighbors whose responses can’t be anticipated.” Source

What is Olmert talking about?

There is Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Egypt on the frontline.

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..middle_eastsm

Saudia Arabia is so close you can see it from Eilat, probably less than 10 miles across the red sea. Yet it is huge, and not known for being in conflicts, although it does give financial support to warring parties.
Beyond that there is Turkey, Iraq, the Gulf states, Iran and Libya.

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Are they going to gang up? Or is it only a case of losing Jordan. It was reported that Jordan attended the Sharm Summit very reluctantly and had really wanted to go to the Qatar summit. Members of the Jordanian parliament burned the Israeli flag inside the parliament building, this is a google result:

Israel’s Gaza offensive stokes anger among Jordan elite – Los

5:16pm14 Jan 2009 Israel’s border with Jordan is its longest international burned the Israeli flag in the parliament, to roaring applause from During the second week, a half-page full-color photograph of an Israeli flag burning at
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-jordan-gaza14-2009jan14,0,3365465.story – 61k –

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Protesters burn a picture of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Amman, capital of Jordan.

Protesters burn a picture of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Amman, capital of Jordan.

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Jordan, Iraq and Egypt all have American bases,  And all the press is reporting that the US will be talking to Iran under Obama. What would Israel do if there was no American military support? Iran would make such a deal. It anyway looks increasingly likely that America is no longer willing to get involved in new Middle East conflicts.

Barack Obama dissociating himself from Bush

Iran has become a top priority. As president-elect, Obama vowed “tough but direct diplomacy” with Iran. Until now Washington hinted at the possibility of direct talks with Iran only if it completely stops nuclear arms development.   Source

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Israel after Lebanon and Gaza has probably developed an aversion to ground war conflicts.

In any conflict Israel will rely on its superior air power. Though now that Russia is a player, they have 2 ports in Syria: Tartus and Latakia. They could offer antiaircraft abilities?
Strangely Air power does not win a war. From Vietnam till today that is the message.

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turkeyprotest

Turkey has been an outspoken critic of all the Israeli actions in Gaza. It is a major supply route to the US in Iraq, giving it major bargaining chips. It also has good relations with its neighbours Syria, Iran and Russia.

Turkey Israel relationship in the dustbin

Written by morris

January 22, 2009 at 5:25 pm

Posted in Gaza, israel, Jordan

Tagged with , , ,

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