Divining the News (DTN)

Not Mainstream News

Second guessing the Gaza outcome

Hizbollah could intervene. It did in 2006 after about a month of an Israeli onslaught on Gaza. Debka is reporting that Meshaal’s refusal to accept an Egyptian truce offer (with israelis in Gaza) has the Israeli leadership thinking that Hizbollah and Iran have given Hamas assurances. Uri Avnery points out that no Arab country came to the rescue of Hizbollah in 2006 and therefore the probability of a wider war is minimal.

Israel could find some internal blowback for the campaign. The bulk of Israelis follow a, ‘my country right or wrong attitude’ particularly in time of war. But when the war is over they can feel shame for the scorn the world has shown, and indeed for the atrocities committed. Maybe the population will want to rid itself of the hawks, the settler movement, and all apartheid leaning groups. The financial crisis has already hit some of their major backers: Madoff and Adelson and most of the Wall Street banksters. It would also be a good propaganda ploy to appease an increasingly antagonistic world public opinion, just as in the course of this war the state has chosen to prosecute a soldier who fired a lot of bullets into a Palestinian girl at close range more than a year ago. The country is anyway polarising, and without a prospect for violence, there can still be a kind of civil war. So this scenario suggests an effort to remove the settlers from the West Bank. No doubt championioning puppet Abbas. Even though he too has now lost Palestinian support.

The Israelis are probably a little proud of the total disgust shown by the diaspora jews. Perhaps they are wondering why they have only attracted supremacists. And they can be enlightened to realize that a Jew can befriend a Palestinian even if they are a Fundamentalist, or a supporter of Hamas. Maybe the Israelis would welcome a different type of immigrant. They must realize that they have dug themselves a hole in Gaza. They have concreted themselves into apartheidniks.

Will the Israelis annihilate Hamas? Avnery suggests the Israelis will incur many casualties and this will turn public opinion against the war. It is a lose lose situation. Masterminded by offshoots of the terrorists that freed Palestine from the British. Hopelessly out of date.

The Egyptian Regime has lost whatever popular support it did have. The Jordanians are also now in a precarious place, they have not broken diplomatic relations with Israel, although they have withdrawn their Ambassador. Maybe Mubarak will fall, maybe Jordan become more distant. And turkey seems all but lost.

Finally Avnery thinks in the end Israel will accept a truce rather like the one it accepted six months ago. But this time it will need to honour the open border and not create a blockade.

The problem as always is the Military Industrial complex, owning the media, supporting Rabbis of superiority and needing endless wars.

Time is on the side of Israels enemies. Now Syria knows the US would attack it if it entered the war. But in six months time that might not be true.

To be continued…

Written by morris

January 11, 2009 at 7:30 pm

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