Georgia: What was Russia supposed to do? The UNSC refused Russia’s ceasefire. The Russians lapped it all up.
Many people and articles have suggested the Georgian attack was planned up to 12 months before. Certainly Saakashvilli’s Govt. had been arming itself and threatening the breakaway regions for many years.Back to the point that it had all been planned. US troops were in Georgia just a few weeks before (if that) on a joint training exercise. What was Russia supposed to do? Russia appears to have been well prepared. It is possible just a contingency plan was carried out. But it feels like the Russians at least half expected it. Perhaps based on observing human behaviour was enough. Tensions had been rising, we can assume the rhetoric too. But highly likely is Russian intelligence (in its own ‘old back yard’) had precise info. Russia could have said we are expecting you to attack and we will fight back. Although the intention of Saakashvilli was to involve the Russians (they bombed civilian areas, not command and control centres, they did not even block the tunnel from Russia to S. Ossetia, and they killed Russian Peacekeepers). The Neocons could only be happy to see a potential supporter of Iran bogged down. The West in the UNSC refused initial Russian requests for a Ceasefire resolution. The intention was to catch the Russians by surprise. If the Russians had tried to preempt the attack by acknowledging foreknowledge, then it is obvious the Georgians would only delay the attack for a future date. The Russians played their cards well. The consequences of the ‘war on terror’ (higher oil prices) has raised the Russian coffers, but that isn’t enough to win a war. They were meticulously clever, in how far they went, and their steadfastness. Aided by a weak opponent, and the opponent is the entire Neocon organisation, which has lost support, and lost any semblance of ideology. |
Oil (Now a synonym for the “war on terror”) has played a big part in this. And that actually means individuals: Tycoons & Oil Barons. They must know (and be a part of) the profits and losses and the stakes and implications. This has not had much publicity. The attention has been drawn to the military conflict and some general assessment of strategic pipelines. But we do not know the nitty gritty. Iran is now selling more energy to Turkey and transshipping Azerbaijani oil. Georgian transits are still not happening. When a railway bridge was blown up that was used for carrying oil. An alternative railway route experienced a mine which derailed the train. The major BTC pipeline is still not active. And according to one report (the last item) a Russian Oil Tycoon is having a birthday Party today in Turkey, to which Putin and Medvedev are attending. Even the small Baku Supsa line is closed. Here is an update on the pipelines. And Condi Rice is visiting Libya, that is a mystery, and is surely related. Presuming the Georgian conflict is still her main concern. Today the EU meets regarding Georgia. And isn’t the US VP on his way to Georgia. The crisis can only grow. And Georgia was only a symptom. There will likely be more symptoms of these conflicting interests. The Gulf, Iraq and Afghanistan have pushed the Neocons into such debt. Disentangling would give the West so much more room to maneuver. And disentangling would allow for dispensing with the false foundations (the WMD’s & Osama etc.), which in turn has led to faulty actions and thoughts and advisers and planners and informants. The Russians are good Chess players, and it seems they are also good Poker players. |
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