Divining the News (DTN)

The BP run BTC pipeline is the only valuable item in Georgia, the only thing to fight over, and just 2 weeks ago, the promise of it being filled with Kazakh oil disappeared. And it disappeared into Russia’s hands. Within a week the pipeline was blown up, and the Georgian offensive started.

This Post shows the evidence to support that.

Perusing the news and Poland agreeing to the US missile shield all suggests Russia is the new bogeyman.It is difficult to understand where it can lead to?

The motivation is from losing control of Caspian oil and Gas.

It would seem a terminal strategy. It is born of desperation from people who have blundered every action possible for the last 8 years.

Can we expect the US to start with sanctions? Well there isn’t much chance, Russia has all the Gas and Oil.

Do we have the caliber of people to outwit the Russians? I should think they are worn out from the ‘war on terror’. And now due to a dubious idealogy we are left with less than the best.

We can expect a polarized world, but a polarisation suggests some balance in power. The West has lost all control over it’s energy supplies, which will become clear in this post.

Poland could create a split in Europe, Russia is building a pipeline that goes to Germany and avoids Poland.It is a world crisis ‘waiting to happen’.

And our U.S of A. will keep providing weapons to all those near Russia.

Who can the Russians turn to? China, the SCO, and the other ostracised countries; the Muslims, and all other energy exporters. And Germany, Austria, France and Italy, as this post will make clear.

Russia Draws Europe into its Orbit

France and Italy are also not enthusiastic about confronting Moscow as their national companies too are involved in lucrative joint ventures in Russia.

Equally, US energy diplomacy in the Caspian finds itself in a cul-de-sac. Washington focused on Kazakhstan all through last year. [...]

[to] promote Kazakh oil exports to Central Europe via Georgia and Ukraine so that the pro-US countries of “new Europe” , such as Poland and the Baltic states (and potentially Ukraine), could jettison their dependence on Russian energy supplies [...]

So it came as a body blow to Washington that Nazarbayev said in Astana after talks with Putin last Thursday, “Kazakhstan is absolutely committed to shipping most of its oil, if not all of it, through Russian territory. We have always said this.” [...]

What does it imply? Question marks resurface over the long-term economic viability of the much-acclaimed [BTC] Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline built with US support, which had counted on Kazakh oil supplies in substantial quantities

Source
The above article from May 7th.

This article from July 30th (that is just 2 weeks ago)

Russia takes control of Turkmen (world?) gas

In the geopolitics of energy security, nothing like this has happened before. The United States has suffered a huge defeat in the race for Caspian gas. The question now is how much longer Washington could afford to keep Iran out of the energy market.

Gazprom, Russia’s energy leviathan, signed two major agreements in Ashgabat on Friday outlining a new scheme for purchase of Turkmen gas. [...]

In essence, the two agreements ensure that Russia will keep control over Turkmen gas exports. [...]

Gazprom’s new stature as the sole buyer of Turkmen gas strengthens Russia’s hands in setting the price in the world gas (and oil) market. And that has implications for China. Moscow would be keen to ensure that Russian and Chinese interests are harmonized in Central Asia.

Source

Because we the public don’t know what is happening behind the scene yet we can surmise our oligarchs are unhappy. In fact more than unhappy!

Strange that almost immediately after losing control of Central Asian Gas and Oil, the BP run BTC pipeline is blown up (sabotage denied by Turkey, but claimed by Kurds) and then a war is provoked in Georgia.

Trying to give a rationale for the BTC pipeline being put out of action:

1. Peoples eyes and attention look at Turkey, not Georgia.

2. The enemy (Russia) is given a false sense of security, as if the Western pipeline isn’t working but Russia’s are.

3. It contributes to chaos and destabilisation of the region, which is good terrain for either; war or ‘an economic saviour’.

4. Or finally another hypothesis, it was a false flag to make Russia look like the culprit.

Analysis: BTC pipeline explosion

If the rupture proves to be sabotage, it will savage Azerbaijan’s economy, now one of the world’s fastest-growing, which projects revenues from BTC as high as $230 billion over the next two decades. The economic fallout will not be limited to Turkey and Azerbaijan either; besides the massive revenue loss to Western BTC consortium investors, BTC now supplies an estimated 1 percent of global daily energy needs. Washington (UPI) Aug 6, 2008 Source

The Chairman of BP is nicknamed King of Azerbaijan

And maybe anti-Russian propaganda is the only reward for our oil barons in the White House. The propaganda is designed to wage war, economic or more likely militarily. But hey it could work, hasn’t Iraq and everything else been sold to the public?

Here are the smallest pieces of a puzzle.

A MOSCOW court has banned TNK-BP chief Robert Dudley from holding office in Russia for two years. Source

BP’s run BTC oil pipeline, sabotaged in Turkey a couple of weeks ago, it goes through Georgia, near South Ossetia.

BP removed from lucrative Russian oil deal last year.

Russia’s Gazprom agrees to be sole agent for ALL of Libya’s oil and Gas exports (not finalised). And Russia will build the pipeline to Europe.

Europe seems totally beholden to Russia for its energy.

Map from: http://student.britannica.com/eb/art-54732/Caucasus

PS. Russian President and Prime Minister were away when the Georgian war started, but they weren’t sleeping – at all.