A Katusha from Gaza hits Ashqelon.

A Katusha hits Ashqelon.

Last time that happened Israel went into Gaza and 120 people died, something like that. Gazans stayed clear of their windows for fear of snipers. I think last time three rockets (or mortars) hit Ashqelon, and there was some death.
This time only injuries were reported. The reports give some indication of what happened, but do not necessarily reflect the truth. It was said two seriously hurt. This is a well defined medical category.
If there was death, there would also be every reason to conceal it. Either so as not to embolden the enemy. Nor to panic one’s own population. Similarly a less than serious injury, could actually mean temporary shock. And such distortions of the truth would be common military practice anywhere in the world.
Why was the fire activated now, with the full knowledge that this is a red line for Israel? Hamas has been saying it will use force up until the last minute, until a hudna (a ceasefire) is agreed.
Bush is in Israel now, and not for nothing, and not for three days to celebrate Israel’s anniversary.
So clearly actions speak louder than words. And Hamas wasn’t happy with what was offered. It would seem to be a very organised organisation. Maybe the orders came from Damascus?
The Israelis have been threatening to invade Gaza for months. It really is not something they want to do, or they would have done it already. Also when they have been making incursions, they have been meeting some fierce resistance, but we never hear about it.
There is something ludicrous about the Israelis launching an offensive while Bush is there. It is just no longer the way things are done. Leaders are always well away from where the trouble is. And of course it wuld ruin all the plans for a public show of a peace agreement.
In proxy wars, and maybe in all our modern wars it is the innocents who suffer the most. And the unfolding events confirm that. Tonight an Israeli air raid killed two Palestinians.
So we can expect the sides to continue trying to kill each other until there is an agreement. Which I think some would like to be signed in Sharm in about four days before Bush goes back. This also seems like Hamas is setting the agenda at this moment.
As for Bush himself, it would take a big stretch of the imagination to think he has a preference for particular details in the agreement. However there are a lot of people who do, Israelis and their Western backers. These backers have been getting publicity in the Olmert scandal case as people funding his election and the settlers in the west bank. And there are Israelis asking why financiers who reside in the US are having so much power over their lives.
The graph since 2003 until now, of timing and tactics has consistently favoured the other side.
Choose your words for the other side: Arabs, Muslims, Terrorists, Insurgents, Resistance, Axis of Evil, indigenous, the peoples will, the oppressed, the democratically elected.
A little truth could go a long way.